2015: The year mobile takes centre stage

A detailed look at how the mobile media technology
landscape will evolve in 2015 to take centre stage in
the lives of consumers and the minds of marketers.

http://wearefetch.com/mobiletrends2015/

Foreword

Julian Smith
Head of Strategy & Innovation

In digital media technology, change is constant, change is complex and change is consequential. Hardware and software is being upgraded continuously. Connected consumers’ behaviours are being modified continuously. And the impacts on consumerism and society at large are being felt continuously.

And the rate of change does not slow down. With the rapid rise of smart mobile technology over the last few years it has only accelerated. All of a sudden, smartphones are everywhere. And the seismic changes these devices are bringing with them are even greater than those before them.

For brands, businesses and institutions the need to keep up with the ever evolving mobile landscape has never been more important. Keep up and you could see great success for your enterprise. Fail to keep up and you could very quickly see declining fortunes. Keeping up with this change however is hard. It’s a job in itself.

To help marketers make sense of the trends and developments in the mobile landscape, and understand what is in store for mobile technology, mobile consumers and mobile marketing in 2015, the Strategy & Innovation team at Fetch has created this responsive microsite.

We hope that this brings clarity to the complexity at hand, and encourages marketers to bring mobile into the centre of their integrated communications planning and implementation.

Happy reading! And good luck with your mobile plans for 2015.

Mobile Technology Trends

Mobile devices will grow in size and sophistication
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Demand for wearables will be stimulated by new smartwatches
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The dawn of the Internet of Things and the connected home
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Apple Pay will spur the mobile payments market
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The mobile app economy will continue to flourish

Mobile devices will grow in size and sophistication

Sometime in 2015 smartphone users will tip the 2 billion mark globally, making the multi-functional mobile device the most pervasive and dominant technology platform in the world. In many parts of the developed world smartphone adoption will reach ubiquity — with population penetration rates pushing 60% to 70%. There will be a marked increase in demand and adoption amongst the less developed parts of the world, like India, China, Africa, and Latin America, as users look to switch from feature phones to their smarter cousins.

This will not just be to the advantage of the smartphone market leaders, Samsung and Apple, but also to the rising array of manufacturers offering cheaper, and yet still good quality, alternatives. The likes of Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo coming out of China for example. These, and other challenger brand competitors, will drive increasing commoditisation in the global smartphone market and a gradual decrease in the average selling price, thus helping less affluent consumers to adopt. Growing global demand will not however help revive the flagging fortunes of Nokia — who may well become extinct in 2015. And to what extent it helps Microsoft Windows phone, Amazon Fire, Google Nexus or Blackberry win significant market share is yet to be determined.

As adoption of smartphones continues to grow around the world, so too will advancements in the devices themselves. Operating systems will be upgraded. Android (by far the dominant OS in the world with over 80% market share) will continue its candy-coded evolution, from KitKat to Jellybean and now Lollipop. While Google will try to take back more control of the fragmented and ‘forked’ marketplace with its Android One programme. And after iOS8 will come iOS9.

These newer OS versions promising more cross-screen functionality, contextual awareness, voice control and health tracking apps. Furthermore it’s expected that Apple will add its Beats streaming music service in their next OS update.

Bigger will
be seen as
better in
smartphone
screen size.

Screens will become higher definition (whether Super AMOLED or Super LCD) and larger. Bigger will be seen as better in smartphone screen size in 2015 as the popularity of phablets (defined as having screens between 5.3” to 6.9”) soars. This will be led by the 5.7” Samsung Galaxy Note 3 range with greater global demand for phablets coming largely from Asia. This might also impact the already slowing tablet marketplace, as phablet behaviour starts to replace some tablet behaviour (such as video viewing).

In other developments, we’ll see the next generation of mobile processors emerge (in the Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 chipset) — that will enable higher resolution video content to be viewed and captured (through improved megapixel cameras). And fingers crossed, we might start to see better battery life become a reality as new solutions are brought to market.

Phablet behaviour starts to replace tablet behaviour

Demand for wearables will be stimulated by new smartwatches

Alongside the increasingly sophisticated smart mobile devices being launched onto the market in 2015 there will be a growing range of connected wearable devices.

The leading smartphone manufacturers will bring their latest smartwatches to market. Motorola is expected to launch a modified version of the Moto 360 this year. As, undoubtedly, will Samsung, LG and Sony. HTC and Huawei are expected to launch their first (Android Wear) smartwatches onto the market. And, of course, Apple will introduce their much anticipated Apple Watch.

This host of premium brand launches over the next 12 months will help bring the wearables category into mainstream consumer consciousness and drive a significant uptick in consumer adoption. CCS Insights forecasts that smartwatches will be a key driver of the wearables markets which will grow from 9.7 million shipments in 2013 to 135 million by 2018.

As well as telling the time, these technology embedded, mobile OS operated watches will give users the ability to beam messages, notifications and social media updates to their wrists, summon voice-activated search and interact with a selection of simplified apps, like weather, music, photos, maps, calendar and health trackers. And with built-in GPS and NFC will enable greater connectivity to the physical world. The Apple Watch will enable users to make contactless payments via NFC and Apple Pay.

Premium brand launches will help bring wearables into mainstream consumer consciousness.

With improving pulse sensors built in smartwatches might over time eat into the third party fitness band market. Gartner forecasts a drop in sales of fitness bands and smart wristbands in 2015, caused by the overlap in sales with smartwatches that also offer fitness-monitoring features. But as these smartwatch devices will be relatively high priced, the lower priced, single function smart bands, such as the Jawbone and FitBit will continue to see growing demand in 2015, driven by the ‘quantified self’ trend. Furthermore Microsoft will tap into this market in 2015 with the launch of a fitness band linked to their Xbox One console.

While smart wristwear is likely to take off in 2015 smart eyewear will struggle to gain as much mainstream traction. Google Glass will continue to be a niche product for most, adopted more in the commercial market for specialist workplaces, such as hospitals, than on the high street. Not only will its high price continue to be a turn-off for most consumers so too will the unwanted attention it generates and it’s limited, high value functionality. Despite this slow, limited adoption, Samsung are expected to launch their own smart eyewear in 2015, called Gear Glass or Gear Blink, which might help stimulate and develop this market further.

According to Gartner the real growth area in wearables will be smart garments. They predict that sports clothing with interwoven sensors and transmitters will outstrip all other types of wearable fitness-tracking gadgets in terms of growth, going from nowhere to become the single largest category by 2016.

Smart eyewear will struggle.

The dawn of the Internet of Things and the connected home

In 2015 the Internet of Things will start to become less of a concept and more of a reality as a growing number of ‘smart’ connected devices come to market. Consumers will be presented with new hardware that comes equipped with a rudimentary sense of intelligence and ability to communicate. Technology embedded gadgets that will promise to help control and manage their homes, their work environments and their vehicles more efficiently and effectively.

2015 will be the dawn of a new era of the connected home. It will start with central heating devices and thermostats. The Google-acquired Nest learning thermostat system already hit the high street in 2014. As did the Hive Active Heating connected thermostat from British Gas. According to Business Insider smart home energy, and smart home security, devices will be the key drivers of growth in global connected home device shipments. Shipments that they expect to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 67% between 2014 and 2019.

Manufacturers will continue to further develop and launch other smart home appliances in 2015. Such as the Samsung Smart Home service, that adds a chat service to fridges, washing machines and cookers. Although this category of smart devices will likely see relatively low adoption in 2015.

A wider range of domestic and personal equipment will become ‘smart’ and sensor-embedded in 2015. More smart lighting options will emerge, such as LIFX, Lumen or Philips Hue. Smart entertainment systems will develop that can, for example, control your TV or audio equipment remotely. Toothbrushes such as the Oral-B Pro 6000 Smart Series or even, tennis racquets like the Babolat Play Pure Drive. Although the consumer demand for these types of product will remain niche.

The smartphone, the remote control of our connected environment.

In 2015 consumers will also start noticing the presence of BLE beacons in their retail and live event venues. These short-range transmitters will bring to life environments by triggering personalised, proximity based messages sent directly to smartphone users via in-app push notifications.

The connected vehicle market will continue to see strong growth in 2015. All the leading car manufacturers will introduce additional in-car smart systems for services such as better vehicle diagnostics, driving efficiency, infotainment, navigation and safety systems. This will be boosted by the Open Automotive Alliance, formed between Google and manufacturers such as GM, Honda and Audi to help bring a customised version of the popular Android operating system into cars.

All of these smart devices will be controlled via mobile apps. Making the smartphone/tablet the remote control for our connected environment.

Central to many IoT-based business models will be the ability to collect, analyse and monetise the information collected by smart products. While this might be a driver of development amongst manufacturers it may be a barrier of adoption amongst consumers concerned about the use of their personal data. It remains to be seen how the benefit for cost-savings and greater safety/security outweighs the costs of data exploitation.

Apple Pay spurs the mobile payments market

Mobile payments are likely to make big strides in 2015. While there have been a range of mobile payment models in existence for a number of years, such as Premium SMS, direct mobile billing and mobile web payments they have to date struggled to gain any mainstream consumer adoption.

It is in the area of direct, in-store payment solutions that most developments and adoption will be seen. The technology is going to evolve allowing shoppers to more easily and conveniently make transactions in store via their mobile device, instead of their credit or debit cards.

A number of mobile wallet systems are already in use, such as PayPal, Amazon Payments, and Google Wallet, which facilitate mobile-based payments. PayPal’s One-Touch, for example, lets shoppers who have downloaded the PayPal app pay with one touch in the apps of participating merchants.

It is Apple Pay that is expected to really boost the mobile payments market in 2015. With integrations already announced with major retailers such as Macy’s, McDonald’s, Walgreens, Staples and Disney as well as back-end partnerships with Visa, MasterCard, AMEX, and the six largest issuing banks this platform is likely to make the difference. While replacing physical wallets and payment cards has been attempted by countless companies over the last decade, it is Apple, with their ability to reinvent and relaunch existing product categories, that is likely to help mainstream adoption. This will also be helped by the added security and privacy technologies that Apple is introducing to the category. Their TouchID biometric sensor provides the ability to secure mobile devices and authenticate payees precisely.

Apple Pay will not dominate the global mobile payments market however. They will face competition in the space from their biggest competitor, Android. There are rumours that a new mobile payments service called Android Pay will arrive in China towards the second half of 2015.

Merchant’s adoption of mobile ready payment terminals and strategies will also help. More and more high street retailers will look to adopt and enable mobile payments. For example, Quick Serve Restaurants (such as Starbucks, Burger King, Subway and Wendy’s) have all initiated a strategy for mobile payments in 2014. A consortium of over 70 of the largest retailers in the US, MCX, announced their own mobile wallet solution ‘CurrentC’. This will broaden to more global merchants in 2015.

Banks will also start to wake up to the potential of mobile payments. According to eMarketer, banks will drive growth in the UK mobile payments ecosystem. Zapp has been created by a consortium of 18 banks and is now accepted in UK supermarkets.

Furthermore a new breed of apps will emerge in 2015 that bypass the payment terminal altogether and allow users to make in-store purchases entirely within their phone. Apps such as TabbedOut and OpenTable promise to fundamentally change the way we pay in restaurants and bars. And watch out for the emergence of mobile payments and money transfer via OTT messaging apps — such as Snapchat’s Snapcash.

Banks will start to wake up to the potential of mobile payments.

The mobile app economy will continue to flourish

The mobile app economy will continue to flourish in 2015. With the ever greater number of smart, app-powered, mobile devices and businesses in the marketplace the app stores, and their swelling crowd of occupants, will see the flow of downloads and revenues undiminished. While this flow might start to slow in more developed markets, where mobile app usage behavior is concentrating and consolidating, the demand in emerging markets will remain high from those with newly acquired smartphones and tablets.

According to Gartner there will be approximately 179 billion apps downloaded globally in 2015, a growth of 28% year on year from 2014. And revenues generated on the app stores are likely to see similar growth of 20–30% in 2015. The revenue generated through apps and software will become an ever larger portion of the overall mobile economy. Forecast to represent 28% of total mobile revenues compared to hardware sales of 72%.

There will remain a heavy skew towards mobile games as the key category for download and in-app purchase, to the benefit of the hit-makers such as Supercell, King, Gameloft and Rovio. And alongside games, mobile social and messaging apps will continue to drive app downloads and time spent. With the growth in the Internet of Things and wearable technology 2015 will see the emergence of a new range of apps for tracking and monitoring ourselves and our gadgets.

“There will be approximately 179 billion apps downloaded globally in 2015”— Gartner

All this will benefit the two key app ecosystem owners, Apple and Google. Google’s Play store will continue to beat Apple’s App Store in total number of downloads — by 60% according to AppAnnie in their Q3 2014 Macro Trends report. This being reflective of the global dominance of the Android platform over iOS. But the App Store will continue to beat Google Play in terms of revenue generated — again by around 60%. This being reflective of the more affluent, and m-commerce ready iOS audience.

Mobile apps will increasingly become interconnected. Whereas previously mobile apps were stand-alone content siloes they will become more integrated via developments in deeplinking from the likes of AppLinks and Google’s App indexing. This should help facilitate the current challenge of app content searchability, discoverability and engagement.

Mobile apps will become more personalised. With greater use of app audience behavioural data, user profiling and segmentation will become more sophisticated resulting in the opportunity to tailor and personalise the app experience and push messaging.

Mobile apps will become more context aware. With greater use of location data signals (coming from BLE Beacons, NFC, GPS) as well as time and behaviour data apps will intelligently respond more to the location and context — providing users more relevant content and functionality.

With the growing focus of brand and businesses on apps and the app store we will hopefully see improved app store analytics — as more marketers look to understand the ROI of their investments.

Mobile Consumer Trends

Time spent with mobile will grow to be second only to TV 
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Mobile online content consumption will grow especially video 
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The rise & rise of OTT messaging & mobile social communications 
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Mobile commerce will grow, impacting online, influencing offline 
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Mobile consumer expectations will heighten

The mobile app economy will continue to flourish

As consumers equip themselves with ever more sophisticated and multi-functional mobile devices time spent on handheld screens will continue to burgeon in 2015. In 2014 eMarketer reported that time spent with mobile was by far the fastest growing media consumption time in the US, growing 23% year on year to 2 hours and 51 minutes per day. This trend is certain to continue. Mobile will make up an ever larger portion of digital media time, having already overtaken time spent on desktop. And mobile will cannibalise time spent with other media, as radio/streaming audio listening, video on demand and news content consumption all shift to the mobile channel.

Mobile will command second place in media consumption time after TV. And while TV consumption is typically in one or two long bursts, mobile media consumption is high frequency, short bursts throughout the day. A recent study by Techmark in the UK revealed that the average smartphone user carries out a staggering 221 tasks every day using their mobile device. And time spent with mobile starts early and finishes late. The average users reaches for their devices before they have got out of bed in the morning and looks at it last thing at night. In fact more and more modern consumers will become addicted to their smart devices in 2015, unable to part with them for a minute. Many surveys show that the mobile device is already the most important media device in people’s lives.

As consumers increasingly have access to multiple screens throughout the day, whether smartphone, tablet, laptop, PC or TV, so their digital media consumption will become more multi-screen — shifting from one device to another dependent on time, location and context. Sometimes this multi-screening will be simultaneous, as for example smartphones and/or tablets are accessed whilst watching TV. Sometimes this will be sequential — as consumers move from one screen to another in order to achieve tasks. But all the time the mobile screen will be a consumer’s constant companion.

Most of the time spent on mobile will continue to be spent in app. In 2014 Flurry found that 86% of mobile media consumption time was in-app compared to 14% on mobile web. This in-app time being heavily skewed by time absorbing activities like mobile gaming, mobile socialising and mobile video viewing (primarily on YouTube). And with the greater adoption of larger screen phablets users will only spend more time on their mobiles. According to Localytics, time spent in app is 34% greater on phablets versus smartphones.

Furthermore we will likely see a rising tide of mobile app engagement in 2015. A separate Localytics study found that the percentage of apps opened just once dropped from 26% to 20% between March 2011 and March 2014. And the percentage of users launching an app 11 times or more jumped from 26% to 39% during the same time period. Suggesting that while users might become more selective about the apps they download, once installed they will be more loyal to them.

Sometimes multiscreening will be simultaneous, sometimes sequential.

Mobile online content consumption will grow, especially video

As time spent on mobile overtakes time spent on desktop devices in 2015, so online content access and consumption will increasingly be via mobile browsers and apps rather than desktop browsers. This will further help grow the browser market share of Google’s Chrome (on Android) and Apple’s Safari (on iOS) to the detriment of Microsoft’s IE.

Already in 2014 the tipping point was reached by which mobile Internet access overtook desktop Internet access around the world. This will only accelerate in the next year as more people around the world adopt smart devices, some coming online for the first time as they skip the desktop stage.

A result of this shift to mobile will be the subsequent shift to mobile search over desktop search. And with this a subtle shift in the pattern and types of search queries. Searches will increasingly be conducted on-the-go, often to access location or context specific information. They will be increasingly voiceactivated, as users start with an ‘Ok, Google’ command. They will be closer to the purchase decision — as consumers make price and product comparisons in the store.

In terms of the content categories most consumed via mobile versus desktop, according to a Millennial Media/Comscore report of 2014, they are streaming radio (95% mobile), games (85%), social media (72%), weather (70%), retail (53%) and health (50%). Whereas the least mobile consumed (where desktop still dominates) are B2B content (20% mobile), automotive (24%) and travel (32%).

Searches will be increasingly voice activated.

News content consumption will also continue to go mobile. Leading news stories, sports updates and celebrity gossip will be discovered on the small screen, whether prompted by an in-app push notification or in the newsfeed stream of Facebook or Twitter.

With the availability of wider 3G/4G connectivity, ubiquitous out-of-home broadband wi-fi, bigger size and better resolution screens more rich media and video content will be consumed via the mobile screen in 2015. According to Ooyala, the percentage of online video watched globally via mobile grew from 21% in January 2014 to 27% by June 2014. Following this type of growth trajectory they forecast that over half of all online video will be watched on a mobile device by 2016.

This will mainly be to the advantage of YouTube — where at least half of their traffic globally now comes from mobile.

Growing tablet content consumption will be markedly different from smartphone content consumption. While smartphone content will typically be for smaller, bite-size pieces of content when time restricted tablet will be for longer form, lean back content browsing and entertainment.

A key mobile activity that will continue to see impressive grow in 2015 is mobile social networking and messaging.

Facebook will lead the way as the primary social media channel accessed on mobile with well over a billion active users worldwide accessing, checking and updating news feeds on the small screen. The platform will receive about 60% of its traffic from mobile in 2015. And by spinning off their Messenger app and acquiring the hugely popular WhatsApp in 2014 will corner even more of this market. WhatsApp will continue its meteoric rise in 2015 and is expected to become a billion-user platform sometime in the year.

Twitter will see maintained momentum and growth from mobile. The vast majority, over 80%, of its 285 million monthly active users will come from the mobile channel in 2015.

And around the world other OTT messaging apps will rise in prominence. WeChat will continue its dominance in the China market and start to expand out to other markets around the world. And the other popular Asian messaging apps Line and Kakaotalk will further grow.

Apps like Skype, Viber, Tango, Kik will benefit from the growing consumer mobile messaging behaviour. And more and more new apps in this category will continue to be adopted.

Private messaging apps, such as Snapchat, Blink, Confide. Group organising apps, like Band and GroupMe. And more focussed, single purpose messaging apps, for example around dating and flirting.

The rise & rise of OTT messaging and mobile social communications

As more and more messaging apps flood the market it will only increase consumer adoption. Thanks to the wide variety of apps in this space a shift will start to occur in social networking behaviour. Consumers will move away from hosting their entire social lives on one centralised, public platform, like Facebook, and start to adopt a wider, more decentralised, mobile-centric suit of public and private messaging apps. This will enable them to pick and choose their mode and method of communication dependent on their desired audience, content and context. And this will not just be restricted to the younger generation, users of all ages and demographics will adopt messaging apps for a variety of different goals and needs. Messaging apps will increasingly fulfil a need for almost every user profile.

This increased use of mobile social and messaging apps will be at the expense of email and text — already dying behaviours amongst the younger generation. And will be at the expense of the established mobile operators. According to Juniper Research mobile network carriers are expected to lose in the region of $14 billion in 2015 as consumers shift their mobile voice and message behavior to free OTT services providers.

Consumers will move away from hosting their entire social lives on one centralised, public platform.

Mobile commerce will grow, impacting online, influencing offline

Consumers will become increasingly comfortable and confident using their mobile devices to shop for products and services in 2015 both at home and on the high street.

Already by the end of 2014, the shift to mobile was becoming evident in the world of e-commerce. A report from IBM claimed that 50% of traffic, and 28% of sales, on online stores during the pre-Christmas Black Friday sales day came from smartphones and tablets in the US. This will accelerate in 2015. We are likely to see mobile become the primary channel for researching purchases and engaging with retail brands online — driven largely by tablet shopping behaviour replacing desktop. And the mobile channel will represent an ever large portion of overall online sales, expected to account for approximately 25% of e-commerce sales by the end of 2015, growing to 50% by 2018.

The extent of this mobile shopping research and purchase in 2015 will vary, of course, dependent on a number of different criteria, such as demographic, category, device, operating system, platform and market. Mobile commerce will skew towards the younger, mobile native shoppers. Will be seen most markedly in lower value, digital-only purchases (such as content, games, travel components, event tickets) as well as some physical goods such as apparel, electronics and books. Will come from iOS users before Android users — although the significant gap between these two platform audiences will narrow as Android users become more m-commerce willing and able. Will differ between smartphone, phablet and tablet users. And will be seen in the more developed markets, like of North America, Western Europe and Asian markets Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Mobile commerce will skew towards the younger, mobile native shoppers.

The rise in mobile commerce will be primarily to the benefit of pure-play online retailers, like eBay, Amazon and Alibaba (in China) — who will see sales from app users steadily grow compared to mobile web users. High street retailers will also stand to benefit as they improve their omni-channel offerings enabling shoppers to research, purchase and receive their goods across digital and physical points of sale.

Multi-channel shopping will become the norm amongst consumers whose purchase decisions and actions will be influenced by multiple screens. Mobile will play a greater role not only in driving online purchase but also influencing in-store purchase. The growth and adoption of mobile couponing will help drive shoppers in store to make a purchase. Furthermore with the growth in device-embedded mobile payment technology and merchant readiness mobile in-store payments will grow rapidly. Business Insider forecasts growth between 2013 and 2018 of 154% CAGR — from $1.8 billion in 2013 to $189 billion in 2018.

Conversely the growing behaviour of showrooming — whereby in-store shoppers compared products and prices online via their smartphone device — might drive more purchases via the mobile and desktop channel.

Mobile consumer expectations will heighten

As consumers become accustomed to living their lives through the mobile screen their expectations and desires for mobile experiences will evolve and heighten.

They will want online content and services to be immediately accessible on-demand through their smart mobile devices. They will want it delivered quickly, smoothly and simply at the press of a touchscreen in their immediate context and moment of need. They will want content feeds to be scannable and scrollable, delivered in a vertical stream they can easily scroll through at pace with the swipe of a finger. They will want bitesize morsels of content to be easily shareable with their social network and messaging groups. They will want to be able to participate and contribute to the content flow with their own mobile user generated content. They will want native features and functionality to be built in — whether GPS-enabled location based services, NFC-enabled payment solutions, or cameraenabled image capture.

To access all this they will want free wi-fi access wherever they go. As they enter a premise (whether restaurant, hotel, café, shop, airport or office) they will expect to be able connect back instantly into their mobile-centered world.

They will come to expect real world experiences to be enhanced by second screen mobile content and services.

When they put down their smartphones for a second and switch to a larger screen, whether tablet, laptop or desktop PC, they will want the online content and services to be consistent and seamless across the screens. They will come to expect customer journeys and experiences that start online be fulfilled in the real world. And they will come to expect real world experiences to be enhanced by second screen mobile content and services.

Anything less than this will leave the savvy mobile consumer of 2015 dissatisfied and disgruntled. This will especially be the case amongst the younger generation born post 1990. The Millennial and Gen Z cohorts — who have grown up mobile natives.

What Forrester refers to as the ‘mobile mind shift’ amongst modern day connect consumers will be an ever more apparent and unavoidable challenge for brands and businesses in 2015. Those that will win out will be the ones that can reach, engage and satisfy their target audiences in the mobile channel.

While this might come easy to those digital/app only businesses, who have already pivoted to a mobile-first approach, it will be much tougher for more traditional businesses who will either sink or swim in the face of demand from the mobile-centric consumer.

Mobile Marketing Trends

Optimising branded content for mobile will become imperative 
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Mobile video advertising will grow as brand advertisers invest 
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Mobile paid social & native advertising will grow as advertisers look to infiltrate the feed 
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Mobile programmatic & data-driven targeting will grow as it demonstrate cost-effectiveness 
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A focus on cross-device will emerge with the need to convert multi-screen audiences

Optimising branded content for mobile will become imperative

In recognition of the significant consumer shift in digital media access from desktop to mobile marketers will continue in 2015 to fine-tune their content and user experiences for mobile and multi-screen audiences.

There will be an ever greater focus on building websites that operate smoothly and efficiently across whatever screen size they are presented on. Developers will increasingly adopt responsive design approaches to website build and even start to look at more intelligent, adaptive design solutions (like RESS) where an optimised experience becomes business critical. The seal of approval from Google, in their ‘Mobile-friendly’ label in the search results, will further spur the laggards into action.

Social media content marketing will become ever more mobile first. With audiences accessing social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Google+ via smart mobile devices social/community marketers will need to post content, and encourage audience participation, that is mobile friendly.

Mobile audience collaboration might be stimulated via social check-ins, photo (selfie) competitions (ie on Instragram), mobile video capture (ie Hyperlapse), geo-targeted treasure hunts etc. As part of this, greater thought will be required in how to develop rich, audio-visual content (both audio and video) for mobile consumption.

There will continue to be interest and investment in decorating the shop window of app stores.

Not only will there continue to be interest and investment in the opportunity of building mobile apps (for customer acquisition and/or retention) but also in decorating the shop window of the app stores. Optimising the app presentation content in the stores (ASO) will be seen as increasingly important for app marketers looking to stand out from the crowd and maximise app downloads. To further promote apps, short preview/ promo videos — that can sit in-store and also off-store — will become more popular. Videos that are already well established in the mobile gaming category will broaden out into all other categories.

Those responsible for CRM communications within brands and businesses will need to increasingly consider the opportunity presented by in-app push notifications. How these highly targeted messages should be delivered to mobile audiences, on their own and in tandem with other direct messaging channels, such as email and SMS. And where BLE Beacons are being adopted, for example by high street retailers, CRM marketers will need to work out how hyper-local

push messaging might be most effective. Furthermore many businesses will see the need to tailor content specifically for a growing tablet audience. Recognising the different browsing, researching and purchasing behaviours between smartphone and tablet users marketers will consider how to use a richer palate, imagery and interactivity to engage and convert a potentially valuable tablet user.

Mobile video advertising grows as brand advertisers invest

The investment in mobile advertising will continue to explode in 2015. According to eMarketer it will total approximately $28.4 billion globally by the end of the year, a more than 100% increase on the total achieved in 2013. Not only will investment in mobile advertising make up an ever greater proportion of digital media advertising (around 20%), but also of all advertising, as it starts to overtake the old media stalwarts, such as newspaper.

The types of advertisers, and industry categories, looking to reach and engage the mobile audience through paid advertising will broaden in 2015. Whereas, to date, channel investment has been dominated by performance-driven m-commerce businesses (looking mainly to achieve maximum app downloads) this year will see a growing number of more traditional, brand advertisers shifting budgets to mobile. With this will come a greater focus on the brand building opportunities presented by mobile advertising for ‘upper-funnel’ objectives such as awareness, consideration and preference.

This growing demand for brand advertising in the mobile channel coupled with greater consumer adoption of larger, higher resolution screen devices (and subsequent growth in mobile video viewing) will lead to continued growth in, already burgeoning, mobile video advertising investment.

In the UK, the IAB/PwC Digital Ad Spend report for H1 2014 declared that mobile video was the fastest growing advertising type, with spend seeing year-on-year growth of 196%. We can expect to see similar level of investment growth in 2015.

And mobile video advertising will no longer just be constrained to mobile-friendly 15 second length ad units. We will see more marketers use full-length video ad content, especially within native advertising placements, particularly when looking to get the most out of their TV ad investment.

With growing numbers of advertisers looking to buy mobile video and rich media advertising, mobile media owners will continue to upgrade their inventory opportunities. More native mobile advertising providers will offer marketers more creativity with rich media, video and visuals and tighter integration into relevant mobile content surroundings.

The key beneficiaries of this increased investment will be the likes of Apple, with their expanded iAd pre-roll and full-screen interstitial banners ads; Google/YouTube with their TruView mobile ad units; Facebook with their premium ad units that autoplay in the news feed; Twitter with their ‘Promoted videos’; Yahoo as they integrate the Brightroll offering; and also the leading mobile video advertising networks such as AdColony, Vungle, Yume and UnityAds.

With more interest in rich media mobile ad formats, the cost of advertising in the channel is likely to rise but so too should the value. Improved targeting (and re-targeting) of mobile video advertising, through more sophisticated data application, will help advertisers engage more higher value audiences who offer a greater life-time value. The need to measure this impact will likely lead to a rise in the number of brand effectiveness studies on mobile to prove it’s true worth on its own and in conjunction with other channels.

A consequence of this growing focus on brand building in the mobile channel will also put extra scrutiny on the value that incentivised mobile advertising delivers to app marketers.

More native mobile advertising providers will offer marketers more creativity with rich media.

Mobile paid social & native advertising will grows as advertisers look to infiltrate the feed

One of the main beneficiaries of increased mobile advertising investment in 2015 will be Facebook. According to eMarketer the social network will take a considerable share (16.7%) of total global mobile ad revenues, far exceeding any other mobile ad platform other than Google — which will capture a whopping 35.2% market share. This leading role in the marketplace is set to continue in 2015.

Marketers will look to further leverage the unique benefits of Facebook’s platform. For its mobile audience targeting (enhanced through the Custom Audience capabilities). For its cross device audience targeting and measurement capabilities (enhanced by Atlas). For its ad formats (particularly App Download ads) that integrate seamlessly into the users’ newsfeed stream. For its relative efficiency and effectiveness at driving a positive ROI. And with the recently launched mobile ‘Audience Network’ for its ability to extend campaigns beyond the realms the Facebook platform itself.

Alongside the ongoing focus on Facebook, advertisers will also look to expand out to the other mobile paid social platforms as they grow their global user bases and advertising offerings.

Twitter will see growing ad investment as it evolves its mobile audience targeting/re-targeting opportunities, by leveraging its TapCommerce and Namo Media acquisitions, and improving its mobile ‘Promoted tweets’ ad units.

Instagram will see the beginnings of real interest from advertisers as they open up more inventory and bespoke opportunities. As too will Snapchat, as they look to monetise their growing audience through self-destructing content opportunities. These two platforms will however likely remain the domain of innovative brand and retail businesses looking to target the younger audience.

And as advertisers look to more deeply engage with the rapidly growing mobile social audience, it will be interesting to see how demand grows for Tumblr’s mobile advertising opportunities and whether Pinterest can develop into a viable mobile advertising platform in 2015.

In the Asian markets, Line, WeChat and KakaoTalk will also further open up to brands and advertisers, although more through content (ie branded stickers/emojis) and m-commerce opportunities than ad inventory. A commercial development for OTT messaging apps that might see adoption in the West.

Alongside the desire to reach mobile audiences in the stream of their user-generated social media and messaging feeds, the desire for more native mobile display advertising in professionally produced mobile content feeds will also grow in 2015. The ability to unobtrusively incorporate branded content, images and even video into flow of mobile content will become increasingly attractive to advertisers. According to

eMarketer executives from top advertising brands — such as Ford, Kimberley-Clark, General Electric and Hewlett Packard — recently expressed a growing interest in the format.

As a result of increased attention on paid social and native advertising the category will see strong growth in 2015. Overall spending on native advertising (both desktop and mobile) in the US will grow 35% year-on-year to reach $10.7 billion. 30% of this will be invested in native-style display ad formats, with the other 70% on social native.

Advertisers will also look to expand out to the other mobile paid social platforms.

Mobile programmatic & data-driven targeting will grow as it demonstrates cost-effectiveness

2015 will see significant developments in the area of mobile audience targeting through programmatic real-time bidding (RTB). As the programmatic advertising sector in general flourishes around the world, mobile will become an ever greater portion of it. According to BI Intelligence Mobile RTB ad sales in the US will generate $1.4 billion by the end of 2015, a y-o-y growth of 180%, and a jump from 10% to 19% of total programmatic spending. Programmatic buying on mobile will be stimulated by the standardisation of mobile ad formats, the growing pool of ad exchange inventory, the growing sophistication of the platforms and the application of ‘big data’.

Specialist digital/mobile media buyers within agencies will increasingly shift more and more budget to testing and learning with programmatic platforms that automate and enhance the buying and selling of ad inventory. Through online interfaces, provided by the likes of Managed.com, StrikeAd or their own proprietary agency trading desks, like Xaxis (within WPP) or Amnet (within Denstu Aegis Network), they will look to take advantage of the opportunity to

efficiently target (and retarget) the right audience at the right price at the right time. The opportunity to combine scalable reach with data rich insight. The opportunity not only to buy remnant, low value banner inventory but also higher value, video inventory.

As part of this the intelligent application of data to mobile inventory will become a growing focus.

Mobile ad networks will become increasingly sophisticated and innovative, offering specific audiences by aggregating, profiling and segmenting mobile audience first and third party data into targetable audience clusters. Providers such as RadiumOne, Affectiv, Conversant, DataXu and AdMaxim will look to combine multiple data signals to offer up profiled target audiences. Data variables such as handset models, operating system versions, connection types, screen sizes, ad formats, behaviour and location will be factored into every single targeting consideration. And on top of this, the greater use of dynamic creative optimisation will lead to more highly targeted mobile ad campaigns in 2015.

Acquisitions that took place in 2014, such as Millennial Media’s linking up with Nexage and Twitter purchasing MoPub and TapCommerce, will start to bear fruit in 2015. Apple will move into the programmatic space as they partner with the Rubicon Project to help brands automate the buying of its mobile ad unit iAds.

And cross screen programmatic buying will become increasingly viable as the big players such as Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter use persistent identity to join up screens and overcome the cookie issue on mobile.

Cross screen programmatic buying will become increasingly viable.

A focus on cross-device will emerge with the need to convert multi-screen audiences

With consumer audiences increasingly accessing content, communications and commerce across multiple screens (varying by time of day, location and context) one of the most pressing issues for marketers in 2015 will be how to target, convert and measure audiences across multiple devices/screens.

As marketers look to buy across multiple channels, cross-device targeting will become increasingly important for delivering consistent and relevant messages to consumers. This will be to the ongoing advantage of the universal log-in digital media giants, Facebook and Google, already the primary beneficiaries of cross device campaigns today. And also the early advertising solution providers in this space, like Drawbridge and Criteo.

Criteo will be well positioned to capitalise on this growing trend in 2015, with the announcement at the end of 2014 of the global availability of its cross-device advertising solution.

Millennial Media’s new mobile-first cross-screen advertising solution, Path — that works through analysis, identification and verification of IP addresses and unique IDs — will also likely see growing demand.

We will see a rise in the prominence of Data Management Platforms (DMPs) in 2015. DMPs collect, manage and integrate digital audience and behavioural data in order to be able to use it for targeting relevant messages across any channel. Something that marketers will looking for as they try to follow their audiences across screen.

While targeting ad campaigns across multiple screens is one thing, measuring conversion success and attributing ROI to various media is another. Understanding the path to conversion and knowing where to attribute credit to the varying touchpoints will be a challenge for advertisers and publishers alike. And especially understanding the role that mobile plays when integrated into a multi-channel communication mix.

2015 will be the year when brands and businesses start paying attention to multi-channel attribution modeling. While historically attribution modeling has been a rarely touched topic due to the difficulty measuring and understanding the full conversion path, with more and more inter-connectivity between ad networks and advanced measurement capabilities, marketers will get closer to being able to get a clear picture of how customers interact with their brand before converting.

Digital marketers will be looking to gather additional behavior data to understand how mobile is assisting conversions on other devices & offline. True lift will be achieved by those who successfully combine these insights with techniques like audience segmentation and full funnel optimisation.